Global Circulation Model values of mean daily air temperature, wind speed and solar radiation for the 2081–2100 period are used to produce change factors that are applied to a 39 year record of local meteorological data to produce future climate scenarios. These climate scenarios are used to drive two separate, but coupled models: the Generalized Watershed Loading Functions-Variable Source Area model in order to simulate reservoir tributary inflows, and a one-dimensional reservoir hydrothermal model used to evaluate changes in reservoir thermal structure in response to changes in meteorological forcing and changes in simulated inflow. Comparisons between simulations based on present-day climate data (baseline conditions) and future simulations (change-factor adjusted baseline conditions) are used to evaluate the development and breakdown of thermal stratification, as well as a number of metrics that describe reservoir thermal structure, stability and mixing. Both epilimnion and hypolimnion water temperatures are projected to increase. Indices of mixing and stability show changes that are consistent with the simulated changes in reservoir thermal structure. Simulations suggest that stratification will begin earlier and the reservoir will exhibit longer and more stable periods of thermal stratification under future climate conditions.
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Research Article|
August 01 2012
Impact of climate change on Cannonsville Reservoir thermal structure in the New York City water supply
N. R. Samal;
N. R. Samal
1CUNY Institute for Sustainable Cities, Hunter College, City University of New York, 695 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10065, USA E-mail: nsamal@hunter.cuny.edu, nsamal@dep.nyc.gov
2Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology Durgapur, M.G. Avenue, Durgapur-713209, West Bengal, India
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D. C. Pierson;
D. C. Pierson
3New York City Department of Environmental Protection, 71 Smith Ave, Kingston, NY 12401, USA
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E. Schneiderman;
E. Schneiderman
3New York City Department of Environmental Protection, 71 Smith Ave, Kingston, NY 12401, USA
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Y. Huang;
Y. Huang
1CUNY Institute for Sustainable Cities, Hunter College, City University of New York, 695 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10065, USA E-mail: nsamal@hunter.cuny.edu, nsamal@dep.nyc.gov
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J. S. Read;
J. S. Read
4University of Wisconsin-Madison, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Environmental Fluid Mechanics, 1415 Engineering Dr Rm 1261, Madison, WI 53706, USA
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A. Anandhi;
A. Anandhi
5Department of Agronomy, Kansas State University, KS 66503, USA
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E. M. Owens
E. M. Owens
6Upstate Freshwater Institute, P.O. Box 506, Syracuse, NY 13214, USA and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY 13244, USA
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Water Quality Research Journal (2012) 47 (3-4): 389–405.
Article history
Received:
March 02 2012
Accepted:
September 14 2012
Citation
N. R. Samal, D. C. Pierson, E. Schneiderman, Y. Huang, J. S. Read, A. Anandhi, E. M. Owens; Impact of climate change on Cannonsville Reservoir thermal structure in the New York City water supply. Water Quality Research Journal 1 August 2012; 47 (3-4): 389–405. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wqrjc.2012.020
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